BCR: Economy to grow by 1.1 pc, inflation estimated at 4.1 pc in 2013

 Powered by Max Banner Ads 

The supplementary public resources offered to the economy by the government, a normal harvest after the 2012 drought and a minor recovery in external demand will back an economic growth of 1.1 per cent this year, BCR’s “Romania in 2013” report published yesterday shows. BCR analysts point out that their inflation rate scenario is slightly more optimistic than the one published three months ago because of a stronger RON, of a good agricultural outlook this year and of the persistence of the aggregate demand deficit. Thus, BCR analysts estimate an inflation rate of 4.1 per cent in December 2013, down by 0.2 per cent compared to their previous forecast. Likewise, BCR analysts consider that the monetary policy interest rate will be constantly maintained at 5.25 per cent in 2013 and the first movement will be a reduction in Q1 of 2014. The exchange rate could stand at RON 4.35/EUR in March and RON 4.40/EUR in December 2013, against the backdrop of a gradual abatement of the abrupt wave of optimism on financial markets. The Romanian economy will grow by 1.6 per cent this year, the revised 2013-2015 fiscal-budgetary strategy shows. An economic growth of 2.2 per cent is estimated in 2014 and of 2.8 per cent in 2015.