Euro increasingly closer to RON 4.50


The European currency continued its appreciation trend relative to leu, as the National Bank of Romania announced a rate of RON 4.4947 for the euro. The national currency’s depreciation trend, visible in this year’s first trading sessions, has been part of the overall trend over the last couple of years. In 2013, the leu depreciated compared to the euro from RON/EUR 4.41 (January 3) to RON/EUR 4.42 (the following day). The trend was similar in 2012 – from RON/EUR 4.32 (January 4) to RON/EUR 4.33 (the following day) and in 2011. The euro exchange rate depreciation reported yesterday by the Central Bank translates into 0.14 percent volatility, despite appearances of a maximum value of the last six months having been reached. Practically, since June 21, when the BNR’s euro rate was RON 4.5209, no similar values have been reported. “Although we expect the leu’s recent deprecation trend to prove temporary, the slightly more pessimistic outlook of global markets today may keep the leu at depreciated levels,” ING Bank analysts have stated in a memo issued early Monday, hotnews.ro informs. The leu depreciated on the first trading day of 2014 on the local market, with BNR publishing on Friday, January 3, an exchange rate of RON 4.4882 /EUR, up 0.35 bani compared to the last quotation of 2013.
The zloty and the forint were in decline relative to the euro by 0.15 percent each. Most analysts estimate Romania’s national currency could “oscillate” between 4.35 and 4.65 compared to the European currency.
The USD rate relative to leu was RON 3.3009, on the rise by 1.21 bani (0.37 percent) from RON 3.2888, as reported on Friday, the first trading day of 2014.
Gold prices went up Monday by RON 1.1 (0.87 percent) to RON 131.4383, as compared to the previous value of RON 130.3037.
Forex market, stable over past 5 years
Economy experts predict wide variations of the national currency against the euro, but the leu could reach a relatively favourable position compared to other regional currencies. “The Romanian forex market has seen continued stability and the leu went through five years of stability over the last five years of economic crisis,” Adrian Vasilescu, advisor to BNR Governor said yesterday, according to realitatea.net. He also said that Romania is facing many issues when it comes to productivity, and for this reason, the wages are so low. At the same time, Vasilescu said that as far as the foreign investments in Romania are concerned, they rather were like a repatriation of profit. The statements made by the BNR representative are confirmed by an analysis released by Noble Securities, showing that the leu recorded the lowest depreciation against the euro in 2013 out of all EU currencies, with Romania’s national currency declining by 0.5 per cent at the end of December compared to its value at the beginning of the year.

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