Prognosis for 2014: Inflation 3.4 pc, RON/EUR average exchange rate of 4.45


Increases in consumer prices over the next four years will stand around the multi-annual inflation target announced by the National Bank of Romania of 2.5 percentage points plus/minus one percentage point, according to the projection of the main macro-economic indicators for the period 2014-2017, released by the National Economic Projections Board (CNP). Thus, in 2014, inflation will stand at 3.4 percent, in 2015, at 2.5 percent, in 2016, at 2.3 percent, and in 2017, at 2.2 percent, show the CNP data. In the same period, the exchange rate of the local currency, the leu (RON) against the euro will be constant, with slight oscillations around the value of RON 4.4 to the euro. CNP forecasts an average exchange rate of RON 4.45 to the euro in 2014, RON 4.4 to the euro in 2015 and RON 4.37 to the euro in 2017.

 

Growth rate to slow down to 2.3 pc in 2014

The same data provided by CNP suggest the Romanian economy growth rate will slow down this year from the 3.5 percent rate it reached in 2013. In 2015, the Gross Domestic Product will increase by 2.5 percent, in 2016 by 3 percent, and in 2017 by 3.3 percent. GDP prognoses point to RON 644.4 billion in 2014, based on current prices, RON 698.8 billion in 2015, RON 737.2 billion in 2016, and RON 778.5 billion in 2017. According to CNP, industry activities will drop this year by 3.1 percent from the 23.4 percent growth reported last year. In 2015, agricultural activities will go up again by only 1.4 percent, continuing this trend in 2016, and dropping slightly to 1.3 percent in 2017. Following last year’s negative contribution to the GDP (minus 1.2 percent), the constructions sector will go up by 6.1 percent this year, by 5.4 percent in 2015, by 5.2 percent in 2016, and 5 percent in 2017.

Unemployment in Romania will reach 7 percent in 2014, and it will steadily drop to 6.6 percent by 2017, according to CNP’s estimates. As such, from a number of 705,000 unemployed persons in 2014, the number will drop to 680,000 in 2017. In what regards the average number of employed persons, it will record an increase that is also constant with about 1 percent per year from 6.34 million in 2014 to 6.56 million in 2017. In the same period, the average gross salary will increase, according to the estimates posted by CNP from RON 2,279 in 2014 to RON 2,561 in 2017, whereas the average net salary will rise from RON 1,660 this year to 1,860 in four years’ time.

 

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