Q3 2012 GDP corrected following INS head dismissal

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Trade deficit dropped massively last November on a year-on-year basis to EUR 409 M, in the context of 9.5 pc lower import and 1 pc higher export.

The gross domestic product of Romania was slightly bigger in Q3 last year than originally estimated and the economic decrease was lower by 0.1 per cent, according to the revised provisory data supplied by the National Statistics Institute (INS). The seasonally adjusted GDP estimated for Q3 2012 was RON 153.767 billion current prices, lower by 0.4 per cent than in Q2 2012 in real terms and by 0.6 per cent compared to Q3 2011, according to most recent available data. In December, INS had reported a real and seasonally adjusted decrease by 0.5 per cent compared to Q2 2012 and a GDP of RON 153.008 billion.The revised gross series decrease compared to Q3 2012 was by 0.5 per cent compared to 0.6 per cent initially reported. The none-month 2012 growth, based on revised data, was by 0.2 per cent compared to 2011, but the GDP was RON 417.41 bn compared to RON 416.268 bn, calculated based on the first set of provisory data issued in December. The data stand for an adjustment by RON 759 M above the previous estimate. The revision of figures happens just days after PM Victor Ponta dismissed INS head Vergil Voineagu last week over his ‘grievous mistake’ in the calculation of the GDP. On January 3, the chief of the Executive admitted to the calculation error of the institute who had revised the GDP for 2011 to a level lower by approximately RON 20 M bn. At the same time, Ponta noted that the result would trigger a reduction of 2013 budget expenditure by almost RON 1 bn.  In what regards the trade deficit, it experience a steep decrease in November compared to November 2011, to EUR 409 M, in the context of 9.5 per cent lower import and 1 per cent higher export. However, during the first 10 months of 2012, according to INS preliminary estimates, FOB export amounted to RON 19 bn (EUR 4.2 bn) and CIF import represented RON 20.9 bn (EUR 4.6 bn). By comparison to November 2011, export went up by 5.3 per cent in RON (0.9 per cent in EUR) and import went down by 5.5 per cent in RON (9.5 per cent in EUR). Compared to October 2012, November 2012 export was approximately at the same level (considering both RON and EUR values) and import decreased by 13.3 per cent in RON (13.1 per cent in EUR). FOB export in the first 11 months last year was RON 186.54 bn (EUR 41.9 bn) and CIF import was RON 225.21 bn (EUR 50.57 bn).

Industry turnover and new orders, down

INS says that new industry orders on both local and international markets decreased by 4.2 per cent in November compared to October, but went up by 5.4 per cent compared to November 2011. The decrease compared to the previous month was due to the decline recorded by the capital goods industry (-8.7%), consumer durable goods (-6.9%) and fast moving consumer goods industry (-0.7%). The producer goods industry went up by 1.3 per cent. Compared to November 2011, in November 2012 all sectors received more new orders. New orders in the fast moving consumer goods went up by 7.9 per cent, in the durable goods industry – by 7.7 per cent, in the capital goods industry – by 5.4 per cent and in the producer goods industry – by 4.6 per cent. In the first 11 months of 2012, compared to the first 11 months of 2011, overall new industry orders went up by 1.2 per cent due to durable goods industry increase.Industry total – local and foreign markets – turnover decreased by 2.8 per cent in nominal terms in November since October, but went up by 4.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis. The November vs. October decline was caused by the reduction by 6.9 per cent suffered by the extractive industry and by 2.6 per cent by the processing industry. All industrial groups posted a decrease – 7 per cent the energy industry, 4.3 per cent the intermediate goods industry, 1.9 per cent, 0.9 per cent the capital goods industry and 0.9 per cent the fast moving consumer goods industry.