BUSINESS

Better prospects for Romanian economy in September

The experts’ forecast on Romania’s economic prospects in the next six months improved in September, but half of the analysts do not expect any major improvements of economic conditions during the period of reference, shows an Erste/ZEW survey, Mediafax informs.


The indicator of economic prospects in the next six months was up 7.8 per cent to 30 points in September, having also gained 29 points in August. The indicator is a ratio between the positive and negative answers given by the polled analysts. The experts also expect inflation and short-term interest rates to drop in the next six months, but they don’t seem to agree on the evolution of the exchange rate.


However, the survey results suggest that most analysts are inclined to expect the RON to depreciate against the EUR, with the relevant indicator down to 20.8 points from 17.7 points in August.


The Erste/ZEW survey also covered the labour market in September. Most respondents expect the highest unemployment rate in Slovakia, followed by Romania and Croatia at a great distance. 42 per cent of the analysts participating in the poll expect Slovakia to register the highest unemployment rate in Central and Eastern Europe by the end of the year, and only 14 per cent believe this to be applicable to Romania. “While the growth is continuing in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia in 3Q of this year, the leading indicators across various sectors indicate that the Romanian and Hungarian economies have not bottomed out yet and also it is expected negative growth rates for this period”, according to the report.
On the other hand, 21 per cent say Romania will have the lowest unemployment rate in the region at the end of 2009, according to the survey. Erste forecasts 7.4 per cent unemployment rate in Romania by year end, and 9 per cent at the end of 2010. The Erste specialists also think the Bucharest Stock Exchange has the greatest potential for growth of all other markets in Central and Eastern Europe, because Romania has been severely affected by the wave of aversion to risk generated by the global crisis and the local market ahs remained at a low level.

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