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March 3, 2021

EC remains confident in Romanian economy – 1.5 pc growth in 2011

The Romanian economy will shrink by 1.9 per cent this year but will come out of recession next year when the GDP is expected to pick up to 1.5 per cent according to the new autumn outlook published by the European Commission (EC) yesterday, according to Agerpres. The Commission’s previous forecast issued in May expected 0.8 per cent economic growth in Romania in 2010 following the 2009 contraction by 7.1 per cent and 3.5 per cent growth for 2011.

As far as inflation is concerned, the EC anticipates for Romania the highest inflation rate in the entire Union in 2010 – 6.1 per cent and that the situation will repeat in 2011 when Romania is expected to register an annual inflation rate of 5.5 per cent, Agerpres reports. The figures show a slight deterioration compared to the autumn outlook indicating 4.3 per cent for 2010 and 3.0 per cent for 2011.

According to EC’s estimations, Romania’s general public debt expressed as a share of its GDP is expected to go up this year to 30.4 per cent of GDP from 23.9 per cent of GDP in 2009 and also to continue to grow in the next years (33.4 per cent in 2011 and 34.1 per cent of GDP in 2012). As for the EU, the Commission’s autumn economic forecast announces a continuation of the economic recovery which is already in progress. Also, the decrease of unemployment in Romania could only be statistical, the EC report reads.

Confidence in the Romanian economy is seen rising for the fifth consecutive month to almost 81 points in November, according to EC, Money.ro informs. Although the economic outlook indicator increased more in Romania than in the overall Union, it is still notable under the EU average of over 105 points.
The improvement of economic expectations in Romania takes place in the context of a general confidence rise in the five areas addressed: industry, services, retail, consumption and constructions. However, there is only one EU member state with an economic sentiment indicator smaller than Romania’s and that is Greece, on 67 points. On the other hand, Romania is quite far from the country ranked immediately ahead of it, Portugal, on almost 89 points. At the other end stand Sweden and Germany – the Union’s optimists, with an indicator of over 116 points.

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