Romania to feel pressure of external payments, new loans needed in Q4

Romania’s total external debt, including private sector debt, has surpassed EUR 90 bln at the end of 2010, being approximately EUR 10 bln higher than the one reported at the end of 2009, informs. While the medium and long-term debt grew by approximately 10 per cent, the short-term debt grew by approximately 22 per cent to EUR 19 bln. Thus, in Q4 this year Romania will start to feel the strong pressure of external payments.

Over 40 per cent of Romania’s medium-term debt falls due at the end of October 2012. Funds for payments of such extent will most certainly not come from budget revenues, meaning that there will be the need to contract new loans. The major stake is the quick reduction of the inflation rate in Q3 of this year, from 7 to 4 per cent. On the other hand next year’s situation is rendered complicated by the scheduling of payments to public sector employees that have already won in court their salary rights in litigation, payments that were already postponed.
The government has already issued laws that the said payments will be made in three nearly equal yearly installments (2010-2012, 2011-2013 or 2012-2014, depending on the year the court ruling was issued – 2009, 2010 or 2011). The National Bank of Romania will not be the only one to pay off the debt to the IMF, with the Finance Ministry set to do the same for the part of the loan with which it financed the budget deficit.

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