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April 13, 2021

Tanasescu, IMF: We could see several European countries being downgraded

Mihai Tanasescu, senior advisor with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), claims that the following period will see the country rating of several European countries being downgraded, hotnews.ro informs. Turbulences on financial markets will probably stop next week and Romania has nothing to fear, being in a good economic situation, the IMF official explained. The former Finance Minister added that the current crisis is rather caused by the failure of US and EU policies that turned out to be incoherent or not credible.

The market situation represents a correction that shows on one hand certain economic growth challenges – a general “slowdown” trend – and on the other hand shows that there are several concerns having to do with the debt crisis in Europe and the fiscal situation in the US, Tanasescu added. All these challenges cause the markets to behave in a more volatile manner these days, but the futures analyses are positive, something that is encouraging.

When it comes to Europe, the delay in approving the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is not good. The EFSF plays the role of a financial instrument on secondary markets and in the US there is no credible and coherent answer in what concerns fiscal consolidation, the economist claims.

These turbulences may lead to collateral victims. In what concerns Romania, the country has enough buffers to withstand the challenges, both from a monetary and fiscal point of view.

“If we look at the indicators we see a rise of industrial production, exports, agriculture… of course there is a certain constraint in the constructions sector but in Q3 we could witness a recovery in that sector. Romania is currently in a good position to resist these waves. Last but not least, I would like to underline the importance of the messages issued by Romanian politicians. They have to be coordinated and should not leave room for interpretation. Caution should be the main word that characterizes the current period,” Tanasescu explained.  Theoretically Romania can be affected through two channels: the first one is that of economic growth because she is highly dependent on exports, and the second is the channel of capital flows. “But here the National Bank of Romania has enough solutions so I’m optimistic,” Tanasescu concluded.

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