The sociologist continues to claim that the Social-Liberal Union (USL) will dissolve before this year’s elections.
By Daniela Baragan
Ex-presidential aide Sebastian Lazaroiu stated on Tuesday on RFI that USL would slump steadily in the polls and would be torn apart ahead of this year’s elections, reiterating that the reins of power would be taken in 2013 by a PDL-Social-Democrat Party (PSD) alliance, which may include the National Union for Romanian Progress (UNPR).
“I’ve been saying it since the USL was founded that it will be very difficult, if not impossible, as there is no precedent of a party or alliance taking 50 pc of votes. The only question concerns the pace at which it will fall. If they slump below 50 pc by June, the normal course of action would be for the alliance to break apart, as, in practical terms, it will have missed the target it was founded for. (…) That is why I have often claimed USL will not be featured on the ballot,” Lazaroiu stated, quoted by Mediafax.
When asked whether PDL should turn, once again, to the Liberals, the ex-presidential aide argued this was a possibility, but voiced his doubt such a coalition “could ensure a full majority”. “In my opinion, two major parties will accede to power in 2013, a large coalition such as the PSD-PDL one and most likely a smaller party, UNPR maybe, if it makes it into Parliament, but at any rate a stable coalition, with as few players as possible, is needed, as otherwise next year will see another block on the topic of revising the Constitution,” Lazaroiu explained.
Replying yesterday, PSD leader Victor Ponta said an alliance between PSD and PDL is ‘impossible.’ Ponta said ‘nobody wants an alliance with Traian Basescu and with PDL, as he tricked us all – the liberals in 2005 and 2008, the social-democrats in 2009.’
Democrat-Liberal MEP Cristian Preda begged to differ, arguing yesterday on RFI that the scenario of a PDL-PSD government – promoted by Sebastian Lazaroiu – was not a good idea “from the vantage-point of economic philosophies,” adding that rightwing parties should join forces, not precluding a PDL-PNL alliance. “To be honest, I think it would be a negative thing from the vantage-point of economic philosophies, as I can see what the left stands for in Europe right now and all it does is calling out loud for the end of financial capitalism. (…) On the other hand, I see the rightwing government seeking solutions so that capitalism would remain the path to economic development. Or, in this respect, I think PDL and PNL qualify for developing a joint project,” Preda argued, further pointing out that “the idea that the president (e.n. Traian Basescu) is an hindrance to this (e.n. to a PDL-PNL government) is unfounded”.
Political forecasts: 2012 will see the fiercest election campaign yet
2012 will be undoubtedly a stormy year, indeed, the political analysts quoted by “Evenimentul Zilei” (EVZ) concur on this, as it is an election year and the stake is a major one: the first merged elections in Romanian history. PDL’s fate and the fortunes of the PSD-PNL-Conservative Party (PC) alliance will depend on the results of this year’s poll and, therefore, we will most likely witness one of the fiercest election campaigns yet, according to political analyst Dan Pavel. Fellow-analyst Cristian Parvulescu argues, in turn, 2012 will not be a good year for consolidating democracy in Romania. “Political tension and instability are already apparent. The merging of local and general elections are a fit ground for these trends this and, if we add to this plans to modify the Constitution, the proposed reduction of MPs’ numbers, another voting system, the administrative restructuring, we have the conditions for deepening political tensions with serious consequences across society,” Parvulescu argued, quoted by EVZ.
As regards political forecasts for 2012, Sebastian Lazaroiu claims Romania’s political evolution will be closely bound with the European economic and political progress. “It will all depend on the extent to which Brussels and the major Western economies succeed in facing up to socioeconomic and political challenges,” the ex-Labour Minister added.