Romanians believe PDL will obtain less than what it now has in the polls. The opposition will not succeed in impeaching Traian Basescu and the parliament will remain bicameral.
By Daniela Baragan
Romanians are sceptical about USL’s odds to obtain parliamentary majority on its own – the Union’s declared objective for this year – say the results of an opinion poll done by Vasile Dancu-headed IRES and published by ‘Evenimentul Zilei’ daily yesterday. Only 13 per cent of respondents think USL has a chance of obtaining over 50 per cent in this year’s election. The number of people crediting the Union with an electoral result between 41 and 50 per cent is also small – 12 per cent. Sixteen per cent say they don’t believe USL will obtain over 40 per cent. Thirteen per cent indicated percentages between 21 and 30 per cent and 8 per cent between 11 and 20 per cent. Thirty-one per cent don’t know what to expect. As far as PDL is concerned, 9.1 per cent believe the party could obtain more than 50 per cent and only 9.7 per cent say that the Democrat-Liberals could obtain between 41 and 50 per cent in election. Ten per cent expect that PDL will obtain over 40 per cent and 16.4 per cent that it will finish on a score between 21 and 30 per cent.
Things are completely different when it comes to the parties’ specific electorates, where the confidence in the favourite party is remarkable. Approximately 80 per cent of PDL’s voters expect the party will keep the power. A similar conviction also reigns among USL’s voters – 70 per cent. The most optimistic are PSD’s voters, over three quarters – and only 66 per cent of PNL’s voters believe in USL’s victory.
Asked about the result of the election, 59 per cent of Romanians expect Dan Diaconescu’s party (The People’s Party Dan Diaconescu – PPDD) will enter parliament. Fifty-three per cent believe UDMR will also remain a parliamentary party. The return of Corneliu Vadim Tudor’s PRM to parliament is uncertain: 48 per cent of respondents believe that and 10 per cent don’t have an opinion. A spicy touch is that UDMR’s voters believe in PRM’s come-back the most. On the other hand, 58 per cent expect Sorin Oprescu will win a new term as mayor of Bucharest.
Although USL announces intensive action to impeach President Traian Basescu, 69.7 per cent of the people believe the opposition’s undertaking won’t be successful and only 23.5 are trustful in victory. Moreover, even if Romanians chose a unicameral parliament in the 2009 referendum, only 61 per cent now believe it will happen. Romanians are also sceptical about the reduction of the number of MPs, 55 per cent answering that it will not be reduced. Sixty-two Romanians don’t think regionalisation can be implemented in 2012. As far as a PDL-PSD post-election alliance is concerned, only one third of Romanians deem it possible.
Romanians still think Basescu is PDL’s president and Vadim is the president of…UDMR
This opinion poll has however revealed one shocking thing: although they are very eager to say who will or won’t win elections, Romanians don’t have a clue who the leaders of the main political parties in Romania are. Or example, only 42 per cent know that Emil Boc is the president of PDL. Seven per cent say that the president of PDL is Traian Basescu. Fifty-four per cent know that Victor Ponta is the president of PSD, to 0.4 per cent Vasile Blaga is the president of PSD and 1.7 per cent have only heard of Mircea Geoana. As far as 54.9 per cent of Romanians are concerned, Crin Antonescu is the leader of PNL, 43.4 per cent shrug their shoulders and 0.4 per cent say the party leader is Calin Popescu Tariceanu. A rather amusing situation has been recorded regarding UDMR, 2 per cent of Romanians saying that Greater Romania Party leader is its president, who in fact is a vocal opponent of the Hungarian Union. Only 12 per cent are aware that Kelemen Hunor is the new president of UDMR. The IRES poll ordered by the Romanian Association for Evaluation and Strategy was conducted on December 7/8, 2011 on a sample group of 1,375 subjects and has a confidence interval of 2.6 per cent.