Romanian economy possibly advanced by more than 2-2.2 pc in 2011, driven by a growing industrial output and a very good agricultural year, according to an analysis made by X-Trade Brokers, whose results were released yesterday. The signal data will be known on February 15, after the report of the Statistics Institute. According to estimations, Romania possibly achieved in 2011 an even stronger economic increase than the 1.6 pc posted by the European Union as a whole, moving closer to the German performance of 3 pc.
Compared to last year, 2012 is expected to bring a slowdown, as Romania’s GDP might advance by 1.4 pc if Europe succeeds to appease the markets and avoid the propagation of tension from financial markets to the real economy. “(…) The scenario of Greece defaulting on its debt could spark a turmoil on financial markets, with crisis expanding to Italy and Spain, thus affecting the whole Euro zone and – in different proportions – the rest of Europe. Romania might thus register a significantly weaker result, with the risk of economic contraction,” warns Victor Safta, head of the Romanian branch of X-Trade Brokers.
At local scale, in the base scenario, consumption might be supported by the growth of the salary income. Even if employees’ negotiation margin in relations with employers is still low, if inflation throughout the region stays at 3 – 3.5 pc, real gains might significantly advance in 2010.
The RON will possibly have another year of relative stability, as the base scenario mentions lateral dynamics between 4.25 and 4.4 pc, with temporary episodes of volatility. “If Europeans eventually are able to regain the confidence of markets, the RON will be positively influenced and will possibly drop under 4.25,” Victor Safta explained.