BUSINESS

BCR anticipates inflation rate of 4 pc and exchange rate of RON 4.5/EUR at year’s end

Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) expects an annual inflation rate of 4.2-4.4 per cent, a relatively stable exchange rate of RON 4.5/EUR and an unchanged monetary policy interest rate until the end of the year, Florin Eugen Sinca, analyst within BCR’s Strategy, Market and Macroeconomic Research Office, stated for tvrinfo.ro. “The recent hike in inflation rate did not represent a surprise for us and we consider that this trend will continue in the following months and the BNR target will be attained. For the end of 2012 we estimate an inflation rate of 4 per cent, at the upper limit of the BNR target,” Florin Eugen Sinca stated.According to the BCR analyst, the main inflationary factors will consist of the hike in food prices, both internally as a result of the drought and at international level, hikes in regulated prices and possible new fuel hikes. “We notice a deterioration of the consumer’s inflationary expectations. In this context, we consider that BNR will maintain the monetary policy interest rate at the 5.25 per cent level in 2012 and will apply a stricter liquidity control that will result in higher interest rates on the interbank market,” the BCR official stated.According to him, the consolidation of BNR’s forex reserves following the Finance Ministry’s Eurobond issuance is a positive element for the exchange rate’s evolution. Sinca did not rule out another Eurobond issuance until the end of this year. The national currency registered a slight appreciation towards mid-session, so that the National Bank of Romania (BNR) announced a reference exchange rate that dropped by RON 0.0067 to RON 4.4975/EUR.

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