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August 17, 2022

EBRD: Economy will grow by 1.4 pc in 2013

After a sharp slowdown in economic activity in 2012, the EBRD’s economists are expecting a moderate acceleration of growth this year. However, Chief Economist Erik Berglof said, “For the first time in a long while we are now seeing the possibility of a reduction in the risks facing emerging Europe, especially the risks from the eurozone. It is too early to sound the all-clear but there are signs of stabilisation.” In southern and eastern Europe, the slowdown in the eurozone and a significant drop in agricultural output have had significant dampening effects on Romania’s growth. After only negligible growth for 2012 some recovery is likely in 2013, with growth seen at 1.4 per cent. Hungary entered a renewed recession resulting in an overall contraction of about 1.5 per cent in 2012.  The country shows the most rapid pace of bank deleveraging of any transition country and a further small contraction of 0.1 per cent is expected in 2013. However, forecasts for the Baltic countries have been raised for both 2012 and 2013 relative to the previous outlook in October. Meagre growth of 1.0 per cent is seen returning to Ukraine after stagnation in 2012. After strong expansion in Turkey in 2011, there was a slowdown last year and relatively moderate growth is expected in 2013 of 3.7 per cent, the document reveals. The Russian economy has not been immune to the impact of the eurozone crisis. In 2012, the weaker global environment and lower investor and consumer confidence led to a significant slowdown in both external and domestic demand.  Russian GDP growth is estimated at 3.5 per cent in 2012 and expected to remain at around 3.5 per cent in 2013 and the medium term, which is less than half of the rapid growth rate that Russia enjoyed in the years before the 2008-9 crisis.

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