Initially, INS has announced 0.3 pc growth, but the figure was revised due to the better performance of industry and retail. ‘We are the only country in our region that had economic growth in 2012 and it is important that we keep the trend also in 2013’, said PM Victor Ponta.
The National Statistical Institute (INS) announced yesterday in a press release an estimated economic growth in 2012 by 0.7 per cent in real terms, higher than the previously anticipated rate of 0.3 per cent, following the appearance of new data and the change of the calculation of various indicators. However, the nominal GDP is the same – RON 587.4 bn. INS says the estimated GDP revision was based on extra information on Q4, which became available after the publication of provisional data, with a notable impact on the data regarding the ‘Public administration’ sector. Another reason is the series of value, volume and price indicators recalculated following the change, in January 2013, of the base year considered for the calculation of these indicators (from 2005 to 2010). ‘We have received the latest data and last year’s economic growth (…) higher than initially anticipated, lower than what we would have liked it to be, but, because of the – if I may – catastrophe in agriculture and drought, it would have been almost impossible. We are the only country in the region with economic growth in 2012 and it is important to keep the trend in 2013 as well’, said Prime Minister Victor Ponta at Wednesday Government meeting. He noted the data on the first quarter this year showed Romania was complying with its commitments towards the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the World Bank.‘
The change of the base year triggered the recalculation and due revision of previously published series of data and called for a rescaling of indicators to a new reference year, as well as recalculation of indicators using a new weighing system, starting from January 2010 till now.
The use of those recalculated data series also led to a revised estimated GDP for all four quarters of 2012’, INS explains in its release. Compared to the first provisional variant, the GDP dynamic in 2012 against 2011 grew mainly thanks to a significant improvement of the industry – from -0.6 per cent in the provisional variant to -0.3 per cent after the operation of the change of the activity volume by 1.1 percentage points (from 97.9 per cent to 99 per cent) as well as wholesale and retail. The total gross added value in the first version had a negative contribution to the GDP growth of 0.2 per cent, and in the version announced on Wednesday a contribution of 0.4 per cent to the GDP growth. The net taxes on products reduced their contribution by 0.2 percentage points. The net export of goods and services improved its negative weight in the GDP performance by 0.1 percentage points. INS data (seasonally adjusted) indicates the GDP estimated for Q4 2012 was RON 147.507 bn current prices, up by 0.4 per cent compared to Q3 and by 0.7 per cent compared to Q4 2011 in real terms. As gross series, the GDP estimated for the last four months of last year was RON 172.107 bn current prices, up by 1.1 per cent since Q4 2011 in real terms. Broken down on quarters, the new forecasts are as follows: RON 112.819 bn in January-March 2012, RON 137,798 bn for Q2, RON 164.774 bn for Q3 and RON 172.107 for Q4, the total GDP being RON 587.499 bn, slightly higher than the previously estimated one of RON 587.466 bn. At the beginning of March, INS communicated a provisional 2012 GDP of RON 587.4 bn, higher by 0.3 per cent than 2011, with a gross added value in agriculture posting a contraction of 21.2 per cent and industry – 2.1 per cent. The first estimations for Q1 2013 will be out on May 15.
According to INS, Romania had an economic growth of 2.2 per cent in 2011 and a contraction of 1.1 per cent in 2010.
IMF: With aggressive reforms, Romania could grow by 3.5 – 5 pc per year
Romania could have an annual economic growth of 3.5-5 per cent on a medium term (next 3-5 years), if the authorities implement aggressive structural reforms, IMF representative for Romania and Bulgaria Tony Lybek has recently said at a meeting of the German Chamber of Commerce in Romania, money.ro reports. The IMF official said that, in the absence of reforms, Romania will achieve economic growth between 0 and 2.5 per cent on a medium term. On the other hand, if reforms go on at the current pace and based on current economic policies, rather than aggressively, economic growth will be capped at 3.5 per cent on a medium term towards the horizon of 2018. The IMF anticipates 2 per cent economic growth this year in Romania. Romania has achieved macroeconomic stability, yet it needs sustainable economic growth, said Lybek. He further noted that possible factors of economic growth for this country could be a better mobilisation of EU funds, structural reforms particularly in the state-owned company sector and the improvement of the business environment.