BCR analysts revised upwards Romania’s economic growth forecast for this year, from 1.1 pc to 1.8 pc, based on a prognosis that speaks of a 10 pc increase of agriculture output this year against 2012 and on the increase of exports outside the EU by approximately 20 pc. “The 1.8 pc increase is a realistic, even conservative estimation, I might say. We do not rule out a higher economic increase, up to 2.5 pc, if we have a good absorption of European funds and a very good agricultural production,” BCR chief-analyst Eugen Sinca, said in a press conference yesterday, quoted by Mediafax. Sinca added that the Romanian economy will have the highest growth rate in the EU this year, except for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
According to the calculations made by BCR analysts, each billion of EUR attracted from structural and cohesion funds contributes 0.3 pc to economic increase on a short-term of 12 months. If Romania attracts a supplementary sum of EUR 1 bln from these funds, the estimated economic growth of 1.8 pc will go up by 0.3 pc, reaching 2.l pc. BCR also anticipates a reduction of the key interest rate to 5 pc per annum, starting from September 2013, and the lowering of the cash reserve ratio in RON, possibly from the second half of 2014. On this occasion, bank officials announced that the total volume of the co-financing granted by BCR for the projects made with European non-reimbursable funds exceeded EUR 1 bln in Q1 2013.