According to macroeconomic prognoses carried out by Business Monitor International, an independent provider of property data, analyses, assessments, rankings and forecasts, as cited by Agerpres, Romania’s current account will continue to regain its balance in upcoming quarters, as the strong performance of exports and the weak demand for imported products will contribute to reducing the country’s trade deficit. BMI analysts estimate that Romania’s current account deficit will be reduced to 1.3% of the Gross Domestic Product this year, and will continue to drop in 2014 to 0.9% of GDP, as compared to 3.9% of GDP in 2012 and 4.5% of GDP in 2011.
According to the provider’s macroeconomic prognoses, Romania’s Gross Domestic Product this year will be RON 653.7 billion, thus signifying a 2.4% economic growth compared to last year. The nominal GDP estimated for 2014 is RON 704.1 billion, on the rise by 2.8% compared to 2013. The budget deficit determined for this year by BMI representatives is 2.5% of GDP. The negative balance for next year is estimated at 2.3% of GDP. The data published by BMI show an increase in this year’s unemployment rate to 6% of the labor force, to be followed by a drop to 5.8% next year.
BMI analysts also expect the central bank of Romania to lower the monetary policy interest rate to 4% by the end of the year, a trend which will be maintained in the coming year, when the key interest rate could reach 3.75%. At the moment, the monetary policy interest rate is 4.25% per annum. Regarding the evolution of the leu exchange rate, BMI expects an exchange rate of RON/EUR 4.45% for the end of this year, and RON/EUR 4.52 for next year.
BMI prognoses concerning external trade indicate a significant decrease in Romania’s trade deficit for this year, from EUR 7.4 billion last year to EUR 3.8 billion. In 2014, the trade deficit will maintain a downward trend and is expected to finally reach EUR 3.4 billion. Imports will amount to EUR 51.6 billion in 2013, compared to EUR 62.4 billion last year. In 2014, imports are expected to slightly rise up to EUR 53.3 billion. This year’s exports are assessed at EUR 47.8 billion, compared to EUR 45.1 billion last year, and are expected to rise to EUR 49.9 billion in 2014.