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March 5, 2021

Romania, at the front line of economic growth in 2013. The outlook for 2014 remains positive

Romania’s economic performance has made it one of the leaders in Europe’s recovery, Coface notes in a press release. Its growth has exceeded expectations, with GDP rising by 3.5 percent in 2013. Significant contributions came from the agricultural and industrial sectors, in particular from car production supplying mainly foreign customers. Although Romania will not continue this pace of growth in 2014, the outlook remains positive.
“The main contributors to this positive performance were the good agricultural harvest and a high level of exports. However, neither of these can be considered as sustainable factors. The recovery of advanced economies will be beneficial to Romania’s external trade, especially its automotive sector, although the country’s internal situation continues to be a constraint“, explains Grzegorz Sielewicz, Economist, Coface Central Europe.
In 2014, Coface forecasts that Romania will be one of the two CEE economies (together with Latvia) where the pace of GDP growth will not improve. The strong growth dynamics are unlikely to be repeated, whereas base effects will be evident during the second half of the year. The forecast for 2014 is a real GDP growth rate of 2.5 percent. The anticipated rate of growth will bring the Romanian economy closer to the forecasted CEE average growth rate of 2.4 percent. Expectations for agricultural output in 2014 are mixed, but the most realistic scenario seems to be that the harvest will be lower than in 2013. Exports will remain driven by the demand for new cars. Internal demand will also show signs of improvement, with household expenditure rising – although it will still be constrained by the sluggish growth in credit. The growth of fixed asset investments will not increase in line with private consumption, as companies are still not fully convinced that the economic recovery is sustainable.

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