In an interview with voceatransilvaniei.ro, the sociologist Vasile Dancu, director of the Romanian Institute for Evaluation and Strategy (IRES) makes some political predictions for 2015, referring mainly to the future of PSD and of the left. Asked if the Social Democratic Party will resist to govern in 2015 and if there will be early elections, Vasile Dancu replied:
“Hard to believe that the new right regrouped, with elected President will have patience until 2016. I think that spring is expected to build some ambush for Ponta government. It will be a miracle if Victor Ponta resists until 2016. Victor Ponta will resist if he proves that he can play in defense, not just in attack. And in defense, what matters is the team cohesion, the solidarity, the sacrifice for others and other things. In the current situation there can be seen more personal strategies for saving or image, few things are for collective defense. I do not believe in the myth that the opposition knows that it is not ready to take the power and that it does not want to attack. After the winter will pass and it will be led by any seraphic lady, hard to be frontally assaulted, they may discover their vocation to make the nation happy from government table”.
There are few reformers in PSD, the barons are hunt by the DNA
Asked who will win the battle for the PSD’s reform, the barons or the reformers and if PSD will really succeed to reform itself, Vasile Dancu replied:
“I would like very much to have a modern leftist party, dynamic, loved by young people and intellectuals, a progressive party which is not only obsessed with votes, but is obsessed with the lives of many and well-being. Dragnea’s proposals are hard nuts to crack, they will be sabotaged from all sides. But these proposals should be taken seriously. In addition, what suggests Dragnea should be compensated with other modernization projects, positive, constructive, motivational, his proposals are still limiting, binding. Beyond these, it is required a new internal solidarity”.
“Barons and reformers? There are few reformers so far, and the barons are lessened by the Anticorruption National Directorate (DNA). I do not foresee great fights, there is no one to lead them, there are few people who have the strength to openly oppose a situation where it is clear that they do not like. On the other hand, I see that the PSD president makes appeal to fresh outside forces who criticize Ion Iliescu and his failures,” said Dancu. “There were voices in the party who did this 10 years ago, but were not even tacitly supported. All were hiding then and made separate peace with Vanghelie who was the great guardian of the ideological purity, and was often making proposals for exclusion,” he added. “In other times, all were avoiding these types of speeches, and now it is hard to know if it is a “captatio benevolentiae” or a sincere desire to open the party for diversity and modernization. It would be comical if it would not be sad. But if it will be succeeded to group everyone who has a flicker of left in some discussion forums, all would be a wonderful thing and any sacrifice from the today’s party management would be worthy,” concluded the IRES director.
It is hard to break PSD, the myth of unity is stronger than any other imperative
Asked by voceatransilvaniei.ro if PSD will break, Vasile Dancu replied: “It is hard to break the PSD, the myth of unity is stronger than any other imperative. But it could be a solution. PSD has simulated various alliances with smaller parties, but never had partners to cover the whole spectrum of the left, from its extreme to the center. Fragmentation of the left and its reorganization as a federation of parties, perhaps led by PSD, could bring more voters. A diversified message is needed, and especially a left that can value the intellectual and emotional vein of this political trend. PSD has at the moment an image of a corrupt party, a party of the barons, even if the right has the same problems. Left has remained obsolete, stuck, although it has accepted intellectuals, diplomats and young people at its top. It remained to address to an audience that meanwhile has transformed, it has always addressed to a captive audience, while the world is changing rapidly and workers in large factories and platforms disappeared. What kind of left is that which is based solely on retirees and employees and is not seeking to have a message for employees in large corporations, commercial platforms exploited to the hilt by the new Romanian or foreign capitalism. Left must fight for the rights (including the right to vote), not to limit the rights,” said Vasile Dancu.