The key interest rate may be reduced to 2.25% per year in the monetary policy meeting of Romania’s Central Bank (BNR) Board on February 4, say the analysts who participated in a survey within the Financial-Banking Analysts’ Association of Romania (AAFBR).
‘According to the opinions expressed by the participants in an internal survey within the AAFBR, the BNR may reduce the key interest rate to 2.25% in the next meeting of its Board, on Wednesday, February 4, 2015. Most of the people surveyed believe that mandatory minimum reserves could be maintained constant in February, both for the liabilities in lei as well for those in foreign currencies. The possible decision to reduce the lei interest rate as of early February may be followed by another similar step up by the year’s end, with most estimates for December 2015 being 2%,’ reads an AAFBR press release issued on Monday for Agerpres.
In parallel, most of the participants estimate a reduction in the mandatory minimum reserves for the liabilities in lei to 8% in December 2015, as well as in those for the liabilities in foreign currencies to 10% in December 2015.
‘The estimates for December 2016 show a possible level of the key interest rate of 2%. These vary from a minimum of 1.5% and a maximum of 2.75%, with a number of the participants in the survey forecasting an increase cycle in the key interest rate in 2016. Mandatory minimum reserves could be further reduced throughout 2016, to 6% for those in lei and 8% for those in foreign currencies,’ the AAFBR release reads on.
The BNR reduced, in 2014, the key interest rate from 4% per year at the beginning of the year to 2.5% per year currently.
The AAFBR is a non-profit professional association, set up in January 2008, which gathers some 60 professionals working in the banking sector, pension funds, investment management firms, insurance and capital market companies, plus in companies operating in other sectors.