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January 27, 2023

IMF revises upward Romania’s economic growth outlook to 2.7 pc

* In its autumn report the IMF was forecasting a growth of 2.4 pc


The International Monetary Fund has revised upward, to 2.7 per cent, its estimates on Romania’s GDP growth this year, according to the World Economic Outlook report published by the IMF on Tuesday.

Last autumn the IMF estimated for Romania an economic growth of 2.4 per cent in 2015. In what concerns the estimates for 2016, the IMF forecasts that the Romanian economy will grow by 2.9 per cent, a level higher than the 2.5 per cent growth forecast last October.

The IMF’s new figures are identical to those included in the Final Statement published following the visit paid by IMF and EC experts to Bucharest on January 27 – February 10, a statement in which IMF experts estimate that Romania’s GDP will grow by 2.7 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2016 and point out that the main factor behind this development is the consolidation of private consumption against the backdrop of strong growth in the real salary, of low oil prices and of interest rates that have reached record lows.

On the other hand, the IMF has revised downward its estimates on the evolution of consumer prices in Romania, the prices being set to rise by 1 per cent in 2015, compared to a growth of 1.5 per cent forecast in the autumn estimates. For 2016, the IMF estimates a consumer price growth of 2.4 per cent, below the 2.9 per cent growth forecast last autumn. The situation is similar in what concerns the current account deficit, where IMF estimates were revised downward, from 1.2 to 1.1 per cent for 2015, and from 1.8 to 1.5 per cent for 2016.

At regional level, Emerging Europe, the IMF claims that economic activity has slowed down last year and many countries are in deflation. This year however low oil prices will boost economic growth but will also add up to deflationary pressures. Where possible, the monetary policy should be used to prop internal demand and countries with poor fiscal positions should rebuild their fiscal reserves.

“The monetary policy should remain relaxed in Poland and Romania, considering the low inflation forecast and the quantitative easing phenomenon in the Euro Zone. Public investments will be rushed in order to counteract the negative effect appearing as a result of the planned fiscal consolidation measures, as envisioned in Poland and Romania, backed by a higher absorption of European funds,” the IMF report shows.


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