The value of the macroeconomic confidence index calculated by the Chartered Financial Analysts Association – Romania (CFA – Romania) stood at 77.1 points in May, 6.4 points above its April value. This is the third consecutive all-time high registered since the index started to be calculated in May 2011.
“Worth pointing out is the improvement of the respondents’ perception in what concerns the future evolution of global macroeconomic conditions, the first positive value in the last 12 months being registered. In what concerns the EUR/RON exchange rate, the median values of the outlooks for the two time horizons considered (6 and 12 months respectively) registered an exchange rate of RON 4.4500/EUR for both horizons, on the rise compared to the values registered before,” a CFA Romania communiqué reads.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index was launched in May 2011, tallying the financial analysts’ forecasts for economic activity in Romania in a year’s time.
The survey is conducted in the final week of each month and the respondents are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III in CFA exams.
The macroeconomic confidence index uses a scale that ranges from 0 (lack of confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated on the basis of six questions concerning current conditions in the business environment and on the labour market, the one-year forecasts for the business environment and labour market, the evolution of personal income at economy level and the evolution of personal wealth at economy level.
At the same time, the survey evaluates the one-year forecasts for the inflation rate, interest rates, EUR/RON exchange rate, BET stock exchange index, global macroeconomic conditions and the price of oil.
Over two thirds of the respondents (70 per cent) expect an improvement of business conditions in the next 12 months, while 54.8 per cent forecast an improvement on the labour market.
Likewise, 64.5 per cent of the analysts expect a rise in personal incomes in the Romanian economy, while 77.4 per cent are optimistic in what concerns personal wealth, capital market and real-estate earnings.
Three quarters of CFA members expect the global macroeconomic conditions to be normal in the next year, while 20 per cent expect them to be good. In what concerns the inflation rate, a quarter of them expect it to rise, while approximately 40 per cent stake on an inflation rate drop.
On the other hand, almost a third of the respondents expect at least one country to leave the Euro Zone in the next 12 months, while 42 per cent state there will be no such exit.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, most of them holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst credential, and one of the 144 member societies of the CFA Institute.
CFA Romania currently has over 160 members, most of them holders of the CFA credential or candidates in one of the three levels of examination for the credential.