The drop of confidence in President Iohannis, the economy’s growth, and the fact that the right-wing parties would collect 48pct of the votes and the left-wings’ 45pct, are the main conclusions of a comparative study based on the opinion polls carried by the Infopolitic Researches and Studies Centre (CSCI) in 2015.
The CSCI analysis shows the evolutions of the main indicators resulted after the InfoPolitic opinion polls of March-April, June and August 2015.
“The ‘Iohannis effect’ is gradually fading; besides the loss of confidence in the President, for the first time the country’s direction is deemed rather bad, in particular by the pensioners and the workers, the CSCI analysis says.
The confidence in President Klaus Iohannis, PM Victor Ponta and former President Traian Basescu – the main politicians considered by the CSCI – is different. Trust in Iohannis has dropped much more than the one in Ponta, yet it remains over 50pct in August. The analysis based on the data of the three polls reveals that the strong confidence in Iohannis has diminished (38pct, 26pct and 21pct confidence in March-April, June and August respectively).
A wave of decrease in confidence took place in June, after Iohannis asked for PM Ponta’s resignation (-12pct very high trust); a smaller second wave (-5pct) occurred in July and August. Symmetrically, the percentage of very low trust grew from only 8pct in March and April to 22pct in August.
The confidence in Victor Ponta has remained at 40pct before his criminal file got mediatized. The confidence in the prime minister dropped immediately after this theme turned viral; the current level of confidence is stable at 36pct.
The trust in Basescu is roughly unchanged (17-18pct), within the error margin. There seems to be a slight drop of the very anti-Basescu people (from 69pct in spring to 60pct in August), as he is not associated with a position of power.
The confidence in Klaus Iohannis and Victor Ponta was also analyzed by social categoriess. As regards Iohannis, in March they have all had the same high level of confidence (80pct). The pensioners have had a distinct way against the other categories, with a wave of decrease in June and another one in August, when they reached 40pct. Among workers, youth and intellectuals the decrease in confidence in the President was parallel and less sudden, from 80pct to 65pct. Among the youth, the percentage stops dropping in August. August data show a nearly mirror image, with the pensioners having much trust in Ponta and less trust in Iohannis and the other categories with a reversed situation. The pensioners have had a relatively constant level of confidence in Victor Ponta, rd 55pct, while all the other groups display trust confidence below 50pct. After the National Anti-corruption Directorate (DNA) criminal case row, the workers and the youth have shown drops in their confidence for Ponta. Among the intellectuals, the confidence in Ponta diminished at the beginning of June and then it dropped slowly, but steadily.
As regards the evolution of the Left and Right political parties, the analysis shows that the clear dominance of the Right after Iohannis’s victory is no more of actuality, the Left area has increased (in spring, in particular), and in August there were no alterations as regards the two blocs. In August, the right-wing political parties would collect 48pct of the votes, the left-wing political parties 45pct, while other parties rd 7pct, of which most of them would go to the Hungarian Democrat Union of Romania (UDMR). The populist parties have lost ground after the failure of People’s Party – Dan Diaconescu (PP-DD).
The only general indicator that stays mainly positive is the growth of the country’s economy. The satisfaction towards the Government’s tax measures is also reflected in the drop of the anti-PSD level within the intellectuals (which still remain the current governance’s main opponents).
According to the analysis, the moment the PM Ponta was indicted by the DNA prosecutors has had as result the halting of the PSD’s rise, which has had exceeded PNL (National Liberal Party) in the first week of June. As compared to the initial shock, the figures seem to return to the first trend.
Likewise, the PNL growth of June was annulled by an as strong similar drop in August, and the PSD has decreased less in the total population. In exchange, the percentage of the undecided has risen (somewhere to 23pct), and of the other right-wing parties, too (especially the party headed by Monica Macovei, which is nearing the electoral threshold).
The new Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (Romanian ALDE) seems to get less than it could have obtained the Liberal Reformist Party (PLR) by itself in the previous months, while the National Union for Romania’s Progress (UNPR), measured for the first time separately from the PSD) would not go beyond 2pct, despite its overexposure and positive treatment it receives in the media of all kinds, according to the analysis.
The perceptions on the country’s economy are positive. So, the majority’s opinion in the past four months is that under the Ponta ruling the country’s economy improved (46pct). Rd one third of the Romanians deems economy is still the same, like before, and one fifth believes it got worst under Ponta governance.
As regards the direction the country is heading to, the peak of generalized optimism was reached in January, after the presidential elections, and from that maximum point on, a gradual decrease began. In April, expectations were still mainly positive yet starting with June the two currents became even (45pct each). In August, for the first time in 2015 there are more people who believe that the direction the country is moving to, is wrong then people who believe it is good, thus returning to the pre-election situation.