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December 7, 2021

Economic growth forecast is positive + National Prognosis Commission revises to 3.6 pc its GDP growth forecast for 2015; maintains 2016 forecast at 4.1 pc

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) has revised upward, to 3.6 per cent, its GDP growth forecast for this year, and has maintained its 2016 forecast at 4.1 per cent, according to its autumn prognosis for the medium term 2015-2019.

Its preliminary autumn prognosis, published in September this year, pointed to a GDP growth of 3.4 per cent in 2015 and 4.1 per cent in 2016. In the spring, CNP’s forecasts had pointed to a GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in 2015 and 3.4 per cent in 2016.
The nominal GDP is estimated at RON 704.5 bln in 2015 and at RON 746.6 bln in 2016.

The most significant contribution to GDP’s real growth this year will come from the services sector (2.2 per cent) and the industrial sector (0.7 per cent).

Domestic demand will register a growth of 4.6 per cent in 2015, compared to 2.6 per cent last year, and its growth is estimated to stand at 4.7 per cent in 2016. The gross formation of fixed capital (investments – editor’s note) is expected to grow by 7.6 per cent this year and by 6.2 per cent in 2016, levels similar to those included in the estimates published in September.

Economic growth will continued to be registered in following years too, a GDP growth of 4.2 per cent being forecast for 2017, 4.5 per cent for 2018 and 4.7 per cent for 2019.

The 2016 state budget is based on an economic growth of 4.1 per cent according to the Finance Ministry data presented on November 18. The GDP is estimated at RON 746.6 bln.

In 2014, the Romanian economy grew by 2.8 per cent.

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