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February 28, 2021

BNR Governor, again very pessimistic: Romania’s GDP to reach 80 pc of EU average 25 years from now

Romania could reach, in the next 25 years, 80 percent of the average European GDP per capita, provided it registers an annual economic growth rhythm one percentage point above the European Union’s rhythm, achieving gradual yet sustainable convergence, National Bank of Romania (BNR) Governor Mugur Isarescu (photo) stated.

Could the Governor not know that our country’s GDP has been three times higher than the EU-15’s for the past three or four years? Or that the IMF Report whose presentation he watched mentions the fact that Central and Eastern Europe’s emerging economies, including Romania and Poland, “are showing a robust growth rhythm coupled with a drop in the unemployment rate”? The data come after Germany and France, the main European economies, are registering new negative records in what concerns the outlook of their economies’ evolution. The IMF estimated that this year Eastern European states will register the highest growth rhythm, 3-4 percent, while the European Commission downgraded its growth forecast for Germany to 1.6 percent in 2016.

“A total factor productivity growth of slightly more than 1 percent would not be unrealistic. This 25-year outlook, for those of my generation, may be a distant outlook, but so was the accession to the European Union, which was achieved at the level of a generation,” the BNR Governor emphasised.

Isarescu remarked that convergence is not a one-way road, given the fact that many countries failed to attain it, and Romania has to continue to support the progress made so far in this sense.


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