CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index advances to 65.3 points in October 2016

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index advanced this October 12 points from the previous month to 65.3 points, CFA Romania informs in a release.

“The index advance is the effect of a rise in both its components. The current conditions indicator hit an all-high of 82.9 points, up by 15.9 points, and the expectations indicator rose 10.2 points to 56.6 points. As far as the exchange rate of Romania’s national currency against the euro is concerned, the median value of expectations in six months and for the 12-month horizon reached 4.5000 lei to the euro (similar to the previous reporting period),” reads the document.

The annual inflation expectation in 12 months (November 2017/November 2016) recorded a median value of 2 percent, up 0.805 percent from the previous reporting period.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 by CFA Romania as an index that quantifies the expectations of financial analysts from Romania’s economy over one year.

The macroeconomic confidence index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy), based on six questions concerning the current conditions in the business environment and the labor market, and one-year ahead expectations for the business milieu, the labor market, the evolution of personal incomes referenced to the economy and the evolution of personal wealth.

Besides the questions needed to calculate the macroeconomic confidence index, the survey also evaluates the expectations for a year relating the inflation rate, the interest rates, the exchange rate of the leu to the euro, the BET stock exchange index, the global macroeconomic conditions and the oil price.

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