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May 17, 2021

National Prognosis Commission leaves unchanged the economic growth estimations for 2016 and 2017

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) left unchanged the economic growth estimations for 2016 and 2017 to 4.8 percent, 4.3 percent respectively, compared to the preliminary version of the autumn prognosis on average term, published in September.

According to the prognosis regarding the projection of the 2016-2020 main macro-economic indicators, the CNP estimates for this year a real economic growth of 4.8 percent, to a nominal GDP of 758.5 billion lei, and for 2017 an increase of 4.3 percent to a value of 807.4 billion lei.

The contribution to the real growth of the GDP rises in services from 3.1 percentage points in the preliminary version to 3.3 percentage points, instead it drops in agriculture to 0.2 percentage points, in constructions to 0.3 percentage points, and in industry it stagnates to 0.6 percentage points.

In regards to the structure of the GDP on branches, compared to the previous version of the CNP, in agriculture the contribution drops from 4.3 percent to 4.1 percent, and in constructions from 7.7 percent to 7.6 percent. In industry it stagnates to 22.6 percent, as well as in net taxes per product (11.1 percent). Instead the contribution in services rises from 54.4 percent to 54.6 percent.

The final consumption was revised upwards from 7.3 percent in the document’s previous version to 7.6 percent in the current one. The GDP per inhabitant stays on the same level of 38,487 lei for 2016 and 41,199 lei in 2017.

Moreover, the investments remain also unchanged, namely on the same growth level of 6.3 percent for 2016 and 6.9 percent in 2017.

The World Bank improved significantly the estimations regarding the advancement of Romanian economy in 2016 up to 5.1 percent, from 4 percent as estimated in June, according to the Economic Report for the Europe and Central Asia Region (ECA), published on 22 October by the international financial institution.

The World Bank draws attention though that the jump of 5.1 percent recorded by the Romanian economy in 2016, after a 3.8 percent growth in 2015 will be followed in 2017 by a slow-down of the growth to 3.8 percent, because in 2018 the Romanian economy advancement will reduce to 3.4 percent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated recently that Romania will record in 2016 the highest economic growth in Europe, namely 5 percent followed by Ireland (4.9 percent).

In early November the European Commission has revised upwards the estimation regarding the increase of Romanian economy in 2016 by a growth of one percentage point to 5.2 percent.

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