The elections campaign is ending and, a week from now, the speculations will be over:
Who are we voting for?
How will the new Parliament look and who will be the great winner, holder of the parliamentary majority?
What do we – the voters – not know and what do they – our representatives – know as being the most likely options for Parliament?
The left wing has exaggerated its power and already declares it will undoubtedly and without a hitch obtain the majority in Parliament. Consequently, the conclusion would be that the left wing will also be the one to form the new Government. In this case, from the left wing’s point of view, PSD’s in fact, elections are no longer but a formality needed to officialise its uncontested status. A kind of apex of a cycle that started with the local elections’ results.
But, is this really the truth in what concerns PSD? Are PSD leader’s mere assurances of “blind” trust enough? The one who started this campaign by arguing with Premier Ciolos and who finishes it symmetrically? Obviously, it’s clear that every politician and political party would undoubtedly declare its electoral success. Because if they don’t do it, then who would?
Nevertheless, PSD is visibly far from being the uncontested winner of these elections.
Although theoretically, as I pointed out before, from the standpoint of the local elections’ experience, things would be predictable in this way. From the standpoint of a more profound and non-subjective political analysis, things are not really like this. On the contrary.
Let’s not forget in what conditions PSD won the local elections and with what real results related to the total number of Romanian voters.
In complete contradiction with everything being said on television or with what this or that politician who is part of the electioneering machine presents, the left wing’s inability to obtain the majority it claims is proven as a painfully accurate barometer by the opinion and attitude (real, I emphasise) of the voters. In the same way, let’s not forget that all smaller parties will generate in the electoral calculus a disfavour not just for PNL, USR or PMP, but also for PSD. Especially for PSD. The party interested in a parliamentary majority that is certain, stable, has no vulnerabilities or no need to accept parliamentary agreements always subject to uncertainty.
Not to mention the whole attitude shown by the left wing’s leader throughout this campaign. An attitude that speaks volumes about what really hides behind the confidence and assurances that a majority will be formed.
Not for a second during this campaign did Liviu Dragnea give off the feeling or the image of a leader really confident in his strength and in the unity and the power of the party he leads. As would be normal when victory is only a matter of time. On the other hand, during this campaign, Liviu Dragnea limited himself to playing a double role game. Because he was at first the victim of the campaign, the one scolded first by Klaus Iohannis and last by the Romanians themselves who dare not believe and who are not interested in his messianic platforms, but who, allegedly, will overwhelmingly vote for his party anyway. And he was secondly the supreme vigilante fighting the rest of the world. An extremely selective vigilante I would say, at least if I were to consider Mr. Dragnea’s complete indifference and deep silence when there was a lack of quorum at the vote on the lifting of the immunity of PSD MP Eugen Bejinariu, who likewise tops a PSD list of candidates in these elections. Not to mention the PSD leader’s lack of attitude in what concerns Dacian Ciolos’s clear involvement in the elections campaign. An involvement that, obviously, Liviu Dragnea did not want to censure as vehemently as he censured and commented, for anyone who wanted but especially for those who did not want to hear, on issues net inferior to the two listed above.
Hence, how big are PSD’s real chances of winning? And, especially, how big are the “animosities” between him and the right wing, Ciolos and Iohannis, and where does the agreement begin?
And in this context, how will the new Parliament look and what political forces will make up the Government?
Looking toward the right wing now… I could only talk about Traian Basescu. The one who has dealt with tabloid issues throughout the campaign. His only preoccupations during this campaign being those of a political dilettante, not at all those of an expert and a competitor: the elections in the Republic of Moldova, the creation of a platform in and of itself from the abstract “establishment,” nominating himself as Premier etc. etc. And… that’s about it. In what concerns the serious approach – at least from the standpoint of an experienced and in-the-know person, as he claims to be and as he should be – to the parliamentary elections and to the formation of the new Government… nothing. Still, maybe Mr. Basescu knows something and his silence or lack of interest at this moment and especially in the moments to follow may represents an exceptional, valuable and tacit clue that should show us, the ones less in-the-know when it comes to backstage political affairs, what we should have understood long before or has been known long before but we are yet to find out.
Liviu Dragnea is confident about the majority.
Traian Basescu is confident that his party will enter Parliament and that he must be the future Premier.
PNL and USR are confident they will deliver the surprise of having the majority and forming the new Government.
Klaus Iohannis is unrelenting in his attitude of refusing “lawbreakers” access to power and removing them from power. Regardless of the result of the vote and of the completely particular understanding of the term lawbreaker in his view.
Dacian Ciolos made up his mind in the end and from civil society’s apolitical technocrat he has become the political and politicised Premier of all. And no longer wants to give up the power conferred by a status that is today completely different from what it was one year ago.
Romanians…we…must vote. The ones who still want to. The ones who still can. And those who still consider we have a reason to do so.
It is alleged that the result of our vote, the one Mr. Dragnea and Mr. Ciolos saw to it to put under the sign of possible fraud, will be the one to decide. The parliamentary ruling power and the Opposition. And the new Government. And the fate of the current political parties.
Personally, I don’t consider realistic at all the most rumoured and somewhat expected version of a result as clear-cut as possible: an overwhelming PSD majority and a PSD Government. Namely the option staked on as image and message in this campaign (and announced ever since the local elections), which sought to give the impression of as great a distancing as possible between all political parties, without any alliances or electoral agreements. With left-wing and right-wing sections as clear as possible. As clear as they can be in this stage of dilution and fragmentation in which the whole political scene has been for some time now. With leaders as determined as possible and no possibility of post-elections agreements or alliances that would go against political nature.
(Could a clean, pure, left-wing or right-wing Government ever be formed in Romania, one without political alliances that are random, opportunistic and of all sorts?)
Precisely the model used so far in Romanian politics, inaugurated with great success at each election, was wanted removed now, with us being offered, allegedly, the cleanest path from a partisan and political standpoint, against the backdrop in which all formulas were exhausted as it is and Romanians not only are indifferent but those who are still interested are increasingly suspicious and non-permissive when it comes to any type of electoral alliance or agreement.
However, things are different when the elections are over. Votes have been cast, and the reasons for the most bizarre alliances or formulas can be justified, of course for national well-being and interest.
In these conditions, leaving aside the politicians’ statements, what possibilities are there?
A majority left-wing Parliament which has ALDE and PRU as kingmakers. With a fragile right wing which will eventually form an alliance to survive and fight against PSD. With a Dacian Ciolos as PR leader of the right wing and a Traian Basescu about whom we will never know on which side he really is. Consequently, a left-wing Government?
I believe not.
A Parliament with an apparently right-wing majority. A fragmented and quasi-inexistent right wing. In which all political parties that claim this side of the spectrum will sooner or later start to fight for supremacy. With a left wing which can at any time become the majority, on account of the right wing’s weakness. Consequently, a right-wing Government, possibly with Dacian Ciolos as Premier, however always prone to instability? And not just to instability but especially prone to occult manipulation.
I believe not.
Neither the left wing nor the right wing can support a Government by themselves. And yet, the Government must be formed. How? By whom? In what way?
Thus, at this moment, most likely is a Parliament in which the left wing will always hold an apparent majority, extremely volatile however. Just like the future status of Liviu Dragnea and his party. A party whose leader is very likely to subsequently change in an unpredictable manner in the following period. With a right wing that can move from the Opposition to ruling power at any time, through alliances or political agreements. With a politically strong Dacian Ciolos and a Traian Basescu extremely active in the political alchemy laboratory.
Consequently, a win-win Government. A national compromise. The eternal one.
In which both the President and the leaders of current and future political parties will accept the solution of a first transitional Government of multiple political stripes.
There is very little time left until our curiosity is satisfied and we will be met by the truth.