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October 4, 2022

INS: Q1 GDP growth mainly driven by population’s consumption

The 5.7pct GDP growth in Q1 2017 was mainly based on the final consumption of households, which contributed 4.8 pct to the advance of the economy, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) said in a release on Wednesday.

“As far as GDP use is concerned, the increase was mainly the effect of the households’ final consumption spending, which advanced by 7.4pct, contributing 4.8pct to GDP growth; and of stocks variation, that contributed +1.1pct, as a consequence of the significant increase in stocks in the economy.

The gross fixed capital formation that dropped 0.7 pct in volume had a negative contribution to GDP growth (-0.1pct), as did net exports (-0.1pct), as a consequence of the volume of imports of goods and services slightly exceeding the volume of exports of goods and services (+0.09 percentage points), the document said.

Almost all branches of economy contributed to the GDP growth in Q1 2017, with the major positive contributions as follows: industry (+1.5pct), with a share of 23.1pct in GDP formation (6.7pct rise in activity volume); wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, transportation and storage, hotels and restaurants (+1.4pct), with a 19.5pct share of the GDP formation (7.3pct increase in activity volume); information and communications (+0.9pct), with a share of 6.2pct in the GDP formation and a 15.3pct increase in the volume of activity; professional, scientific and technical activities, administrative services and support service activities (+0.5pct), with a 6.2pct share of the GDP formation and a 9.1pct increase in the activity volume.

Expressed as raw series, the Gross Domestic Product estimated for the first three months of this year was 159.66 billion lei in current prices, up 5.7pct compared to the first quarter of 2016.

As seasonally adjusted series, the estimated GDP for the first quarter of 2017 was 199.89 billion lei in current prices, up 1.7pct in real terms compared to Q4 2016 and 5.6pct higher from Q1 2016.

International financial institutions estimate an advance between 4.2pct and 4.4pct for the Romanian economy this year. Thus, in its World Economic Outlook, the World Bank revised upwards its economic growth forecast to 4.4 pct from an initial projection of 3.7 percent this January. The International Monetary Fund has also revised upwards its estimation for the evolution of the Romanian economy this year from 3.8pct to 4.2pct, according to its latest World Economic Outlook published in April. In its spring economic forecast published in May this year, the European Commission said the Romanian economy would grow 4.3pct in 2017, below the winter forecast of 4.4 pct GDP growth.

Romania’s National Prognosis Commission (CNP) estimated in its ‘2017 – 2020 Medium Term Forecast, spring edition’ that Romania will register this year a 5.2pct economic growth.

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