CFA Romania financial analysts are expecting the national currency of Romania, the leu, to depreciate to a median of 4.6 lei to the euro in the next 12 months, while inflation should stay at 2 percent, according to the CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, June 2017.
“In June 2017, CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index fell to 60 points from the previous month, 6.6 points lower than the figure previously recorded. The decrease was the result of both its components. Thus, the current conditions index was 76.2 points, a decline by 7.6 points, while the expectations declined 6.1 points to 51.8 points. As far as the euro / leu exchange rate is concerned, it is worth noting that over 70 percent of the participants are anticipating a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months. Thus, the expected median rate is 4,6000 lei to the euro in the next six months and a similar one in the next 12 months.”
The expected median inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (July 2018 / July 2017) is of 2 percent, unchanged from the previous index.
“It is worth noting that an increase in the interest rates on the leu, both in the short term run (3 months) and the medium term (5 years) is expected, with 90 percent and 95 percent of the respondents having voiced such expectation,” according to CFA Romania.
CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011 and represents an indicator that aims at quantifying anticipations of the financial analysts on economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy).