ECONOMY FINANCE&BANKING

IMF improves estimates of Romania’s economic growth in 2017, 2018

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has marked up from 4.2 percent to 5.5 percent its growth estimates for the Romanian economy this year, according to the latest World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday by the IMF.

The IMF also improved its forecast for the pace of growth of Romania’s economy in 2018 to 4.4 percent as against the 3.4-percent forecast released in April.

According to the world economic outlook document, Romania and Iceland will record this year’s the largest economic growth in Europe of 5.5 percent.

Overall, Europe would see an economic growth of 2.5 percent, while Emerging Europe, a region including Romania, should witness a GDP growth of 4.5 percent.

Consumer prices in Romania this year, according to the estimates of the international financial institution, have been downwardly revised to a 1.1-percent increase, from a 1.3-percent increase as forecast in April, with the increase in prices expected to accelerate in 2018 to 3.3 percent, above the 3.1-percent increase previously projected by the IMF.

The IMF also revised its current account deficit projected for Romania to 3 percent in 2017 (from 2.8 percent previously) and 2.9 percent in 2018 (as against 2.5 percent forecast in April).

On the other hand, the IMF has marked down its estimates of unemployment in Romania, which is expected to stand at 5.3 percent this year, compared with 5.4 percent previously estimated, to reach 5.2 percent in 2018, similar to the forecast in April.

 

Statistics revise upwards, to 6.1 pct, GDP advance in Q2

 

Romania’s National Statistics Institute (INS) has slightly marked up Romania’s GDP growth in the second quarter of this year, according to new data released on Tuesday, showing the Romanian economy having climbed 1.7 percent in real terms on a quarterly basis, and 6.1 percent (raw series) from the same quarter of the year before.

The data released at the beginning of September indicated a 1.6 pct advance of the GDP as compared to Q1, 2017, in real terms and by 5.9 pct (as gross series), Y-o-Y.

According to the figures released on Tuesday, as seasonally adjusted series, as compared to the same quarter of 2016, the GDP recorded a 5.9 pct increase (5.7 pct in September).

“The seasonally adjusted series of the quarterly GDP was recalculated as a result of the estimates for Q2, 2017 being revisited, without any significant differences being registered as compared to the version published in the Press Statement no. 218 of 5 September 2017,” the INS specifies.

In the first six months of this year, the advance of the Romanian economy was 5.9 pct as gross series and 5.8 pct as seasonally adjusted series. The data released in September showed that the GDP had increased by 5.8 pct as gross series in the first six months of the year, Y-o-Y, and by 5.7 pct as seasonally adjusted series.

As seasonally adjusted series, the GDP estimated for Q2, 2017 was of approximately 208.6 billion lei current prices and for H1, 2017, it stood at 413.1 billion lei current prices.

As gross series, the GDP estimated for Q2, 2017 was 197.5 billion lei current prices, and for H1 2017 it was 361.7 billion lei current prices.

The most significant contribution to the GDP growth was brought by final consumption (5.2 pct, a slight fall as compared to the data released in September which indicated a 5.4 pct contribution).

“As compared to the provisional version (1), in Q2, 2107, the GDP dynamics has gone up by 0.2 percentage points and the one of the total gross added value, by 0.3 percentage points; the volume of net taxes per product have dropped by 0.6 percentage points. The total gross added value on branches of activity has registered more significant modifications in the following domains: public administration and defence; public system social security; education; health and social assistance (+0.3 percentage points),” reads the INS release.

From the point of view of the GDP use, significant changes were recorded in the contribution to GDP growth, between the two estimates, for the following: the gross fixed capital formation (investment – ed.n.) from 0.6 pct to 0.0 pct as a result of its reduced volume from 102.4 pct to 100.2 pct; the goods and services import, from 4.3 pct to 4.9 pct as a result of its volume increasing from 109.5 pct to 111.0 pct; the goods and services export from 2.9 pct to 4.3 pct, due to the increase in volume from 106.6 pct to 109.8 pct.

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