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April 15, 2021

ANM: Changeable weather, normal precipitation forecast for Romania, May-July; droughty July

Weather in Romania in the next three months will be changeable, with temperatures above average and abundant rainfall in May and June, and a droughty month of July, according to  a three-month special forecast, valid for May-July, released by the National Weather Administration (ANM).

According to the ANM forecasts, average temperatures in May will be close to the average in the south, south-east and west. Below-normal values should be recorded locally in the other areas. Specialist measurements show that the May monthly average is 14.9 degrees Celsius, according to the results monitored between 1981 and 2010. For 2018, ANM forecasts show average temperatures between 12 and 16 degrees Celsius in Oltenia, between 13 and 18 degrees in Muntenia and Dobrogea, and between 15 and 18 degrees in Banat and Crisana.

At the same time, total monthly precipitation will be close to usual in the south-eastern part of the country and excessive elsewhere, i.e. over 66.5 l/ sq.m. The highest amount of precipitation is expected in Maramures – up to 89 l/sq.m,. Muntenia (up to 86 l /sq.m.), Crişana (up to 85 l / sq.m.), Banat (up to 84 l /(up to 83 l / sq.m), and the lowest in Dobrogea (up to 47 l /sq.m.)

In the first month of summer, the average monthly air temperature will be close to usual in most of the country. The multiannual average for June is 18.3 degrees Celsius. The lowest average temperatures should be recorded in the Oltenia area (between 15 and 19 degrees Celsius), with higher average temperatures of up to 22 degrees Celsius expected in Muntenia and Dobrogea.

In the same month, total rainfall should be close to the average in the northern and central part of the country, and less than that elsewhere. Average June precipitation is forecast at 84.5 l/sq.m. The highest precipitation is excepted in Muntenia (up to 111 l /sq.m.), Banat (107 l/sq.m.) and Transylvania (up to 106 l / sq.m.), Moldova and Crisana (103 l /sq.m. each). On the other hand, rainfall in Dobrogea should vary between 27 and 60 l/sq.m.

According to ANM, average air temperatures in July should be higher than usual in the southern and south-eastern parts and generally close to usual elsewhere. Average temperature for the same period is 20.2 degrees Celsius. Average temperatures should be between 17 and 21 degrees Celsius in Oltenia, going as high as 24 degrees Celsius in Muntenia and Dobrogea.

In terms of precipitation, July should be a droughty month in most of the country, as against a multiannual average of 77.8 l /sq.m. However, average rainfall of ??up to 112 l/sq.m. are forecast in Moldova, up to 102 l/sq.m. in Muntenia, and up to 100 l/sq.m. in Transylvania and Oltenia. At the same time, average rainfall in Dobrogea is estimated to be between 17 and 47 l/sq.m., between 61 and 84 l /sq.m.in Crisana to exceed 93 l/sq.m. in Banat .

The seasonal estimates were made by the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting (ECMWF) in Reading (England).

ANM points out that extreme short-living weather events cannot be predicted using these forecasts.

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