Macroeconomic confidence index drops 2.1 points in October in CFA report

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index decreased by 2.1 points in October compared with the previous month, to 48.4 points, but it was up 5 points over the October 2017 index.

According to a CFA Romania press release, this development was the result of negative changes in the expectations component of the index.

Thus, the current conditions indicator increased marginally on a monthly basis by 0.3 points, to 62.5 points; compared with the same month of the previous year it increased by 3.4 points.

The expectations indicator decreased by 3.3 points, to 41.3 points (+ 5.8 points compared with the same month last year).

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 80 percent of the participants are expecting the RON to depreciate over the next 12 months as against its current value. Thus, the average of the six-month expectations is 4.7087 RON to EUR, while the 12-month average is 4.7526.

The expected inflation rate in 12 months, November 2019/November 2018, averages out at 4.50 percent.

CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, and it represents an indicator designed to quantify expectations of financial analysts on economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon.

Participants are members of CFA Society Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exams.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding: current conditions of business and the labour market; expectations from business, the labour market, personal income and personal wealth at the economy level.

In addition to the necessary questions to calculate the Macroeconomic Confidence Index, the survey also evaluates the a one-year projections regarding inflation rate, interest rates, EUR / RON exchange rate, the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BET) trading index, global macroeconomic conditions and oil prices.

CFA Romania is an association of investment professionals in Romania, mostly chartered financial analysts (CFA), a qualification administered by the CFA Institute of the US.

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