POLITICS

INSCOP EP elections poll: PSD and PNL in a tie, USR-PLUS Alliance on third place

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Libreal Party (PNL) are basically in a tie in what concerns voting intentions in the European Parliament elections, according to the latest INSCOP Research poll ordered by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and conducted on March 5-13. The USR-PLUS Alliance is third (the first time the two parties are measured as an alliance), ahead of ALDE and Pro Romania.

Of the Romanians who state they have a clear voting intention (58.5 per cent of respondents):

26.9 per cent plan to vote for the PSD

26.3 per cent for PNL

15.3 per cent for the USR-PLUS 2020 Alliance

9.3 per cent for ALDE

9.1 per cent for Pro Romania

5 per cent for UDMR

4.4 per cent for PMP

1.1 per cent for PNTCD

1 per cent UNPR

1 per cent DEMOS

 

The USR-PLUS Alliance and UNPR were measured for the first time.

Compared to the previous month, the scores of the political parties showcase minimum variations, except for Pro Romania which grew by approximately two percentage points.

 

Voter turnout

The Romanians’ intention to vote in the European Parliament elections has been measured on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means “I will definitely not vote” and 10 means “I will definitely vote.”

38.7 per cent of respondents gave a score of 9 to 10, which means they are determined to vote in the elections.

If only these respondents’ voting intentions are taken into account, the scores of the parties will not undergo major changes:

29.1 per cent would vote for the PSD

27.1 per cent for PNL

17.7 per cent for the USR-PLUS 2020 Alliance

8.1 per cent for Pro Romania

7.9 per cent for ALDE

3.7 per cent for PMP

0.7 per cent for DEMOS

0.2 per cent for PNTCD

 

The results of these correlations must be analysed with restraint, considering that they are based on a smaller sub-sample (around 400 respondents), which leads to a rise in the margin of error.

The final result of the European Parliament elections of 26 May 2019 will also be influenced by numerous factors that cannot be quantified by an opinion poll: the activity of the political parties, the mobilisation of political organisations, impactful events on the public agenda (for instance the holding of a referendum on the day of the vote), the composition of the final list of candidates that each party will present, the actual voter turnout level on the day of the elections, or the volume of votes cast abroad, INSCOP points out in the report it published on Thursday.

The INSCOP Research poll was ordered by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and conducted on March 5-13 based on a questionnaire that interview operators filled-in at the homes of the respondents. The poll had a multi-stratified and probabilistic sample of 1,053 respondents, representative for the non-institutionalised adult population of Romania. The data has a maximum admitted margin of error of +/- 3 per cent, at a confidence rate of 95 per cent.

 

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