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INS: Official Q1 2019 GDP estimates, pegged at 5pct

Romania’s Q1 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.3pct higher in real terms than Q4 2018 GDP, and 5pct, both unadjusted and adjusted for seasonality, over Q1 2018, according to provisional data released on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

“The seasonally adjusted series of quarterly Gross Domestic Product did not change, the revision of the estimates for Q1 2019 as compared to the provisional (1) estimates published by Press release no. 137 of June 6, 2019 being insignificant. The seasonally adjusted series are quarterly re-estimated due to the change in adopted models, in the number of regression factors used, in the unadjusted series and in the number of available observations,” says INS.

The Gross Domestic Product – seasonally adjusted data – estimated for Q1 2019 amounted to 251,236.3 million lei current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 1.3pct against Q4 2018 and by 5.0pct against Q1 2018.

The Gross Domestic Product estimated for Q1 2019, unadjusted series, amounted to 200,383.8 million lei current prices, increasing – in real terms – by 5.0pct as against Q1 2018.

As compared to the provisional version, the GDP volume is unchanged while the Gross value added volume increased by 0.1 percentage points, the last one increasing its contribution to the GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points; the net taxes on products growth rate and contribution decreased by 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.

Gross value added volume by industries did not record significant changes, in general, more significant changes being recorded in: wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants, by +0.2 percentage points; information and communication, by +0.2 percentage points, and real estate, by +0.2 percentage points.

From GDP uses standpoint, significant changes in the contribution to the growth rate of GDP between the two estimates were recorded for final consumption expenditure of households, from +4.3pct to +4.5pct, as a result of their activity volume increase from 106.7pct to 107.0pct; individual and collective final consumption expenditure of national government, from +0.7pct to 0.0pct, as a result of their activity volume decrease from 103.8pct to 100.2pct; gross fixed capital formation, from +0.9pct to +0.6pct, as a result of their activity volume decrease from 105.4pct to 103.9pct; net export, from -3.3pct to -2.5pct.

The Romanian government estimates an increase by 5.5pct in the Romanian economy this year, according to the Convergence Program 2019-2022 published by the Ministry of Finance, on a positive contribution of domestic demand (6.1 percentage points).

On the other hand, international financial institutions expect a GDP growth of less than 4pct in Romania in 2019. The European Commission forecasts a 3.3pct advance in the Romanian economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 3.1pct; the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 3.2pct, and the World Bank, 3.6pct.

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