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September 26, 2022

CFA Romania analysts predict economy deceleration in next 12 months

CFA Romania analysts predict an economic deceleration in the following 12 months, as well as a double-digit inflation rate, said Adrian Codirlasu, deputy chairman of the Association.

“After 8 consecutive months of decline, the confidence indicator registered a correction. But both the confidence indicator, as well as its component of expectations remain low, which indicates expectations for deceleration of the economy in the next 12 months. Inflationary expectations continued to rise, participants estimating that the inflation will remain expressed in double digits for at least the following 12 months,” Codirlasu specified, in a press release sent to AGERPRES on Thursday.

CFA Romania estimates that the GDP will go up by 3.2% this year, as opposed to 5.9% in the previous year, and the budget deficit will reach 7.1% of the GDP, from 6.7% of the GDP. Inflation rate for the next 12 months is estimated at 11.7%, from 15.05% currently, and the RON-EUR exchange rate at 5.1165 RON. A drop to 7.95% is estimated for the three-month interbank offered rate.

CFA Romania Association has a Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of 37.5 points, which is due to the 10.8 increase of the current conditions component.

The survey is done monthly by CFA Romania, for over 11 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wishes to quantify the financial analysts’ expectations regarding Romania’s economic activity for a one year timeframe. The survey is made during the last week of each month, and the participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for Level II and Level III CFA exam.

CFA Romania Association is an organization of the professional investors in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, qualification managed by CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the over 160 member companies of the CFA Institute. Currently, CFA Romania has over 260 members.

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