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December 4, 2022

European Commission improves estimates on Romania’s economic growth in 2022. PM Ciuca: EC’s estimates give investors more confidence

The European Commission (EC) improved the estimates regarding Romania’s economic growth this year, from 3.9pct, as it anticipated in July, to 5.8pct, according to the Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast which was published on Friday.

After a strong 2022, Romania’s economy is set to slow down with real GDP growth at around 2pct in the coming years due higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and the fallout from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Therefore, the European Commission foresees an increase of Romania’s economy from 1.8pct in 2023 and 2.2pct in 2024.

Inflation is expected to peak at the end of 2022, remaining still high in 2023, before declining in 2024. Overall, HICP is set to reach 11.8pct in 2022, 10.2pct in 2023, before falling to 6.8pct in 2024, according to the EC estimates.

The unemployment rate will stand around 5-6pct. According to the 2022 Autumn Forecast, the unemployment rate will reach 5.4pct in 2022, 5.8pct in 2023 and 5.4pct in 2024.

In 2024, the deficit is forecast to decrease to 4.8pct of GDP, following solid revenues and the decline of current expenditures as a percentage of GDP, mainly due to the high growth of nominal GDP. The deficit is forecast to decrease to 6.5pct of GDP in 2022, 5pct of GDP in 2023 and 4.8pct of GDP in 2024.

The general government debt is projected to decrease to 47.9pct of GDP in 2022, 47.3pct in 2023, before increasing to 47.6pct in 2024.

The European Commission publishes every year two sets of detailed forecasts (in spring and autumn) and two sets of intermediate forecasts (in winter and summer). The interim forecasts include the annual and quarterly GDP and inflation values of all member states for the current year and for the next year, as well as aggregated data for the EU and the Euro zone.


PM Ciuca: EC’s estimates regarding improvement of Romania’s economic growth prospects give investors more confidence


The European Commission’s estimates regarding the “substantial” improvement of Romania’s economic growth prospects, from 3.9 pct to 5.8 pct this year, give Romanian and foreign investors more confidence, stated, on Friday, Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca.

“The fact that, in such a complicated year, Romania managed to keep its attractiveness as a business destination is largely due to the courage shown by entrepreneurs and their ability to permanently adapt. A defining contribution is made by private and public investments, respectively the financing lines opened from national and European funds, including through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, as well as the governmental measures through which we took over the pressure of the increase in energy prices,” Ciuca said, according to a post on the Facebook page of the Government.

He added that the short- and medium-term solutions, such as capping and compensating energy prices, adapted including through the decisions established on Friday in the Government, are complementary to the long-term ones, which tend towards the goal of achieving energy independence.

“The financing recently obtained for the construction of Units 3 and 4 at the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant is added to the other large-scale investments to increase Romania’s energy production capacity,” added the Prime Minister.

The head of the Executive points out that the autumn forecast of the European Commission also signals the challenges in the perspective of the next years in order to succeed in maintaining a constant rate of economic growth.

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