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March 16, 2023

CFA Romania estimates two-digit inflation until the end of this year

CFA Romania analysts believe that inflation will remain expressed in two digits until the end of this year, with their expectations indicating a rate of 10.27 pct, down from 16.37 pct in 2022.

For the evolution of gross domestic product, analysts estimate a slowdown in growth to 3.8 pct in 2023, compared to 5.9 pct in the previous year, while the budget deficit will decrease to 5.5 pct of GDP, from 6.7 pct in 2022. The EUR/RON exchange rate will climb to 5.0636 RON, and Romanian Interbank Offer Rate ROBOR at 3 months to 7.33 pct.

“Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, 75 pct of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0080 RON per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0636 RON per euro,” reads the CFA Romania press release.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the association increased by 4.2 points to the value of 37.9 points, a situation due, on the one hand, to the increase by 1.3 points of the current conditions component and, on the other hand, to the increase by 5.6 points, of the anticipation component.

The survey is conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association, for over 11 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wants to quantify the expectations of the financial analysts regarding the economic activity in Romania for one-year time horizon.

CFA Romania Association is the organization of professionals in investments in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by CFA Institute (USA). Currently, the association has 250 members.

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