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March 16, 2023

National Prognosis Commission estimates slowdown of economic growth to 2.8pct in 2023

The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) estimates a slowdown of the economic growth to 2.8pct this year, from 4.9pct the previous year, and an inflation rate of 8pct at the end of the year, down from 16.4pct at the end of 2022.

The figures presented by the CNSP in the winter forecast published on Thursday do not differ from those recorded in the autumn forecast, published in October 2022.

Consumption growth will slowdown to 2.4pct from 4.6pct in 2022, while gross capital formation (investment) is expected to increase by 6.2pct in 2023, compared to 10.2pct last year.

For next year, the institution estimates a GDP advance of 4.8pct and a significant decrease in inflation to 3.7pct.

In terms of trade, the export of goods (FOB) will record an increase of 10.6pct this year, up to 102.65 billion EUR, while for the import of goods (CIF) an advance of 12, 5pct, to 142.55 billion EUR. The FOB – CIF trade deficit will rise to 39.9 billion EUR in 2023. For 2024, the export of goods is expected to increase by 8.2pct, the import of goods by 8.5pct, and the FOB – CIF trade deficit will reach 43.6 billion EUR. In 2022, the increase in exports of goods was 24.3pct and imports 28.8pct with a trade deficit of 33.9 billion EUR.

The current account deficit will drop this year to 8.5pct of GDP, from 9.4pct last year, and in 2024 the advance will be 7.9pct of GDP.

The average exchange rate will rise to 4.94 RON/EUR this year, from 4.93 RON/EUR last year, and will reach 5 RON in 2024.

On the other hand, the ILO unemployment rate will drop to 5.3pct this year, from 5.5pct in 2022, and will reach 4.8pct next year.

The average monthly net salary will rise in 2023 to 4,283 RON and in 2024 to 4,738 RON, Agerpres reports.


Photo: www.pixabay.com

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